GMP Preview of 3GSM show
With four different portfolio interests in wireless, the upcoming 3GSM show is a big deal for us. Intrinsyc will be demo-ing the Soleus platform. Wmode announced a new deal this morning. And Bluestreak’s mobile TV offering will be a big part of Orange’s show no doubt.
Here is GMP Securities’ preview note for this weeks’ conference:
3GSM, the World’s largest tradeshow begins today in Barcelona, Spain. The annual tradeshow is the largest of its kind for the wireless sector and features the highest level executive representation for the industry.
We expect significant business development news through the week as the global population of wireless users marches towards 3 billion (we expect this to be reached by year-end 2007 which for perspective far outpaces the landline market for subscribers, first surpassed when the mobile market reached 1.2 billion users in only late 2001). Voice and SMS continue to dominate the carrier revenue profile, however, a convergence of variables including broad availability of smart devices, increased carrier sophistication in marketing/operating data networks, wide variety of application/content and (most important) the growing recognition that mobile devices provide end users their most continuous interface with the World network are combining to create excitement for growth prospects.
We expect to see evidence that positioning is established as a mass market technology with GPS in 2007 devices comparable to first generation camera integration in 2003. Mobile television which first gained our approval from a technical perspective last year should emerge as the application to watch for late 2007. We believe that mobile TV will open up the capability for video in general being one of the most important mobile applications in 2008. Our prediction is that mobile commerce will be the featured future application of this 3GSM which implies mass market potential in 2009. Other key technical/application trends include fixed/mobile convergence through IMS and related technologies, VoIP, mobile browsing/search/advertising, and higher speed networks via HSDPA/HSUPA. We don’t expect to see significant WiMAX presence (possibly a function of its contentious nature to 3G) and we maintain our prediction from last year that Africa will be the largest growth geography from a subscriber perspective.
From a device perspective, we expect to see the usual hype associated with faster, better and more powerful. RIM7 has already formally launched the QWERTY Pearl 8800 series as expected along with availability at Rogers and Cingular (note that the 8800 comes equipped with built-in GPS). Many others are expected to launch new technologies during the show (for example, we expect to see Microsoft launch its latest version of its mobile operating system), however, we are most interested in seeing if there are any developments of a comparable nature to the iPhone announcement from Apple. We believe that the iPhone is going to show its impact at 3GSM by virtue of it standing out as a fundamentally different device experience. The mobile industry has not seen innovation on this level for a single device launch in many years and device announcements such as the 8800 and its multimedia features should inevitably draw comparisons.