Nanos poll suggests federal election on hold

I’m in Ottawa for some CVCA activities, so it is hard to avoid the topic of politics and the status of the Conservative minority government. In the past week there have been two polls released with distinctly contrasting outputs. One had the federal Conservatives ahead by 10 points, while the other found the two parties to be in a dead heat. Here is the latest poll from Nanos Research, which leans to the dead heat side of the ledger:

“Our latest tracking shows the Conservatives and the Liberals continue to be gripped in a deadlock. Support for the NDP has dropped 5 points nationally in the past 16 days while the Conservatives are up 3 points (within the Margin of Accuracy).

In order to understand what was driving the vote every committed voter was asked why they had a particular vote preference.

Conservatives were more likely to be driven by policies and job performance, the Liberals by a belief they were the best option and party policies/platform and the NDP by policies/platform and a belief they care for the average/working person.

Support for the Bloc was based on their standing up for Quebec/French and the belief they are the best choice. Green Party support was driven by their environmental credentials and policies/platform.

Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only – First Choice)

The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on February 4th, 2008.

Canada (N=878, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 34% (+1)
Conservative Party 34% (+3)
NDP 14% (-5)
BQ 10% (NC)
Green Party 8% (NC)

Question: Why is ______ your first choice?
Liberal supporters:
1. The best choice (20.8%)
2. Good policies/Platform (19.4%)
3. Tradition/Always voted for them (19.0%)

Conservative supporters:
1. Good policies/Platform (27.0%)
2. Doing a good job (18.8%)
3. The best choice (13.1%)

NDP supporters:
1. Good policies/Platform (26.7%)
2. Care about the average/working person (20.0%)
3. The best choice (18.3%)

Bloc supporters:
1. Stand up for Quebec/French (37.6%)
2. The best choice (18.8%)
3. Am a separatist (15.3%)

Green supporters:
1. Best for the environment (52.9%)
2. Good policies/Platform (20.0%)
3. Deserve a chance (11.4%)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.nanosresearch.com.”

Although you’d think that a tied poll would be encouraging for the federal Liberals, no one in this city seems to think that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion is ready to roll the dice on an election just yet. I can report that he appeared to be relaxed and a keen opera buff at last night’s NAC fundraiser for the Opera Lyra and the National Arts Centre orchestra. Thanks to the efforts of Michael Schade, Steven Page (on the BNL) and Bill Pristanski, the Gala raised more than $400,000 for the two groups.

As incredible as Michael Schade and Russell Braun are, the real opera excitement of the night may have belonged to mezzo-soprano Lauren Segal. A recent grad of the Canadian Opera Company ensemble. Although Mr. Page rang off several remarkably rich bars of Nessun Dorma to end the evening, a performance which might have given any lead tenor a run for their money.

With an audience that included the Governor General, the Chief Justice, the P.M.’s wife, the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, the Clerk of the Privy Council, former P.M. Jean Chretien and many members of the Canadian Military, Mr. Page can be forgiven for rising to the occassion.

There’s another reason for Mr. Dion to delay the election call — more time to enjoy opera.

MRM