Does RIM’s weak share price bring on a takeover bid? part 3

If you can stand another post on the topic of Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ) potentially acquiring Research In Motion (RIM:TSX, RIMM:NASDAQ), there are two points to make as the Thanksgiving weekend begins.

The first regards Canaccord Adams research analyst Peter Misek’s comments to Reuters yesterday when he was asked about my original Wednesday post (see prior post “Does RIM’s weak share price bring on a takeover bid?“). Mr. Misek said, and I quote:

“RIM is a massive strategic fit” for Microsoft, said Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek. “I’m fairly certain they have a standing offer to buy them at $50 (a share).”

Can you imagine how Mr. Misek could have ever come by this information? Did Steve Ballmer whisper it in his ear a year or two ago the annual Redmond cattle call for research analysts who cover Microsoft? “Peter, if you can ever convince Jim to sell for $50, we’ll be there in a heartbeat.” To be “fairly certain” about something is to be, well, pretty damn sure. And since Mr. Misek is a research analyst, and not a tarot card reader, one naturally assumes that he has done his research and doubled-sourced the information, etc., etc.

Not to put too fine a point on it, and this is just my opinion of course, but I think it is safe to say that Mr. Misek has no concrete foundation for the “$50 standing order” notion. Zippo. When was the last time you ever saw a hostile tech M&A deal announced where the buyer thought a seller would tender for 10x earnings, which is what Mr. Misek infers with this pockerful story. The last time RIM traded in a range where $50/share might have presented an attractive premium to the then quote was the Fall of 2006. Which means Mr. Misek has been carrying this burden around in his brain for more than two years, just dying for the chance to drop the “exclusive bomb” on an unsuspecting journo. Doubtful.

The other thing that seemed worthy of raising was Oracle CEO Larry Ellison’s comments at his AGM. This from the WSJ:

Ellison Says Oracle Is Eyeing Acquisitions

Oracle Corp. Chief Executive Larry Ellison said his company may take advantage of the slumping economy to acquire other software companies at a buyer’s price.

“Acquisitions that we have been looking at for some time may now be more attractive,” Mr. Ellison said Friday at the software giant’s annual meeting of stockholders. He added that he expects to target small-but-growing companies rather than large publicly traded ones.

Oracle didn’t make the list of potential suitors for RIM, but the point that Mr. Ellison sees the current market meltdown as an opportunity to go shopping for strategic acquisitions is very much in keeping with the original MSFT/RIM storyline….

MRM
(disclosure – I own RIM)