SES on Quebec Election
Nik Nanos is probably the best pollster in Canada right now. He has the Liberals at 25.8%, the PQ at 24.3% and the ADQ at 15%; undecided was 23.9%. Here is his qualitative take on the current Quebec election polling results, and what’s to come:
Charest does well on most leadership measures. Dumont runs a strong second. Boisclair’s personal image trails both Charest and Dumont on most factors.
Among their own political tribes, Boisclair’s approval ratings are relatively the weakest. Charest scores well among self-identified Liberals, Dumont scores well among self-identified ADQ supporters, Boisclair does not get as strong a comparative rating among self-identified PQ supporters.
Dumont does well among Quebecers who do not identify with any of the parties (swing voters) and among middle aged voters. However, his party is seen as being weak on policy and there is a perception that his team is weak.
The Charest Liberals are seen as having a strong team and a strong platform.
Quebecers who usually self identify with the PQ prefer Dumont over Charest.
The research suggests that Dumont is tapping into disgruntled PQ voters and that his support is more populist than party oriented.
All this adds up to volatility. Any further meltdown for Boisclair or the PQ will help Dumont. For the close of the campaign, we may see a shift in strategy for the Liberals to the team and the platform. Looking at these numbers, I would not be surprised to see personal attacks on Dumont (especially from the PQ).
The tables with the tabs are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com. Source: the “SES Research Quebec Election Survey.”