Redline and Sandvine flatline

1 response

  1. DB says:


    Unlikely Implication That Sandvine is Misleading Investors

    Caputo’s customers didn’t think regulators would take action

    Mark McQueen, a Canadian investor writing at Seeking Alpha, I believe is stretching when he writes “In hindsight, investors will wonder about the veracity of that rosy revenue guidance given that management was offloading some their own shares along the way. The insider sales at Redline were modest when compared to Sandvine, but mutual fund portfolio managers have long memories about such things.” Given the interest if many carriers in traffic management, I believe Sandvine had a reasonable chance of hitting revenue estimates until the regulators jumped in. The senior executives at Bell Canada, Rogers Cable, Time Warner and of course Comcast very publicly indicated they believe that regulators neither should nor would get involved. Customers and prospects like that almost surely gave Sandvine reason to be optimistic about future sales, as did the continuing problems with malware. Bell and Comcast were so certain they’d win they apparently didn’t even have anyone technically competent review what they were telling the regulators. Their statements, including one signed by 9 probably very well-paid attorneys, made errors that were immediately obvious to anyone who knows real world broadband networks. Kevin Martin and Debbie Tate in the U.S. have figured that out, I infer. Von Finckenstein required Bell to release data that the press including Ars Technica could see contradicted Bell’s official statements. On the other hand, if the Canadian press has recently quoted him correctly, Caputo is saying that all broadband providers need to do shaping. I know at least three that publicly deny that, including Verizon, and everything I can find on the technical side suggests they are telling the truth. In addition, traffic shaping on p2p looks like a dubious business, given that p2p is dropping on some networks (above). The Sandvine boxes do more than just degrade p2p of course, so the company has other prospects as long as the web has dangers.


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